Abstract for: A DYNAMIC SIMULATION ESTIMATION OF THE SPREAD OF COVID-19 AND ITS EFFECTS ON INDONESIA’S ECONOMY
The coronavirus disease (Covid-19) has spread throughout the world, including in Indonesia. The deaths in Indonesia due to Covid-19 began at the beginning of March 2020. As the death rate increases every day, so does the number of deceased. However, the effects of the transmission of Covid-19 on the economy have not been calculated. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic on Indonesia’s economy. A literature study method was used on previous research and a System Dynamics method was applied to simulate the effects of Covid-19 on Indonesia’s economy. The research results reveal that there are four scenarios: a bad scenario (“Base”), the worst scenario (“S1”), a moderate scenario (“S2”), and a desirable scenario (“S3”). Consequently, in order to ensure that the economic growth can reach 3.5%, a vaccine for Covid-19 should be found by August 2020, the recovery time should be 7 days, the ventilator ability needs to reach 79%, the hospital bed capacity must be 51,161 beds, and social distancing needs to keep being done. These analysis results can be useful for decision makers to design appropriate policies to handle Covid-19 in Indonesia.