Abstract for: The cyclic pattern of wildfire as an outcome of a coupled human-natural system
Over the past decades, wildfire has imposed a considerable cost to natural resources and human lives. In many regions, wildfire's annual trends show puzzling oscillatory patterns with increasing amplitudes for the burned area over time. This paper aims to explore potential causes of such patterns by developing and examining a dynamic simulation model that represents interconnected social and natural dynamics in a coupled system. We develop a generic model, and based on simulation results postulate that the interconnection between the human and natural subsystems is a source of the observed cyclical patterns in wildfire, where risk perception regulates activities that can result in more fire and development of vulnerable properties.