Abstract for: Implications of delays in fleet turnover policy implementations

Decarbonization of Light Duty Vehicles (LDVs) is a key step toward meeting mid-century climate targets. In 2019, LDVs accounted for 57% of road CO2 emissions and 44% of emissions from the overall transport sector, which itself accounted for 24% of energy-related CO2. Mid-century climate targets may require zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) to represent the vast majority of the vehicle fleet. Consideration must therefore be given to how vehicle fleets can be transitioned from being currently comprised primarily of high-carbon vehicles to incorporating large shares of new low-carbon vehicle technologies in the future. A critical roadblock to a low-carbon vehicle fleet transition is the slow turnover of the vehicle fleet. The purpose of this study is to explore the implications of turnover speed for meeting decarbonization targets.