Abstract for: Modeling The Dynamics of Covid-19 And Alternative Policies in Turkey

There is intense modeling effort worldwide of the dynamics of Covid-19 and the potential effectiveness of alternative policies to combat the pandemic. The purpose of the project is to model the dynamics of the epidemic in Turkey. The problem is an ideal modeling challenge for system dynamics methodology. In the first phase of the project, the basic dynamics of Covid-19 was modeled to generate the fundamental epidemic wave(s). The parameters (about infectivity, mobility of different age groups, their vulnerability, delays in various stages of the epidemic, hospitalization, mortality, and recovery rates…) were estimated using both global and local Turkish data. After the validity of the model in producing the main dynamics was established, alternative policies and scenarios were tested in the second phase of the project. These polices and scenarios include alternative vaccination strategies and different human behavior, mutation, and immunity related scenarios. The model not only includes the feedback response of policy makers to different situations with tools such as lockdown and quarantine strategies, but also the behavioral response of different population groups both to the state of the epidemic and to the implemented policies. By simulation experiments, the ultimate purpose is to investigate which policies will be most effective under what conditions.