Abstract for: Parametrized SEIR model for performance-based decision support: A case study of COVID-19 epidemic in the state of Georgia (USA)

The question of the impact of pandemics on human society is clearly of first priority. This paper aims at building on top of the classical SEIR pandemic model paradigm in order to bring a new vision of decision support. The general principle is to use System Dynamics modeling but the originality is that the impact of a pandemic is assessed through the deviation of the performance trajectory of the social system within the geometrical framework of its Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). Consequently, the model is based on two types of parameters: (i) the ones from the social system, and (ii) the ones from the pandemic. The simulation approach provides the values of the KPIs all along the observed period. The accuracy of the approach is finally evaluated through the comparison with the actual values of the state of Georgia during one year of the COVID-19 crisis (03/2020-03/2021).