Abstract for: Scenarios of bio-based plastics growth and impact
Bio-based plastics hold potential to alleviate the environmental burden of plastics production and applications. However, the subject area poses several challenges regarding impact metrics, model scoping and dynamic hypotheses. The subject area poses several challenges regarding impact metrics, model scoping and dynamic hypotheses. One challenge regarding impact metrics is that the environmental impacts of bio-based plastics can be uncertain or conditional. An initial dynamic hypothesis exists for the project rationale, but it is relatively narrow and requires more carful consideration of drivers and barriers of change. The formulation of a dynamic hypothesis has proven challenging due to relatively few pre-existing shared normative aims of this multi-disciplinary research project. Our current challenges concern particularly finding appropriate scoping of the modelling work that both responds appropriately to each discipline's research interets and normative aims. We are currently attempting morphological scenario analysis as a means of narrowing the model scope analytically. Morphological analysis is a method that identifies consistent and inconsistent pairs of possible future states and thereby systematically expludes some types of futures. We hope that this, alongside explicit normative discussions during group model building, can help narrow down what exactly is worth modelling.