Abstract for: Development of Decision making tool for Sustainable Technologies transition in Indian Transport sector
Transition to novel transport options such as ethanol blended fuel (E-85) vehicles and electric vehicle (EV) is being aggressively pursued in India to address climate change. To understand their adoption trend for private transport as a function of technology performance, cost and other factors, we have developed a system dynamics model. System dynamics captures the underlaying the causal relation and hence helps in understanding its behaviour. Causal interactions among different variables, feedback loops and time delays have been identified in the system. Negative feedback loops connecting fuel supply to its demand has been used to determine apparent fuel prices. Fuel prices add to the ownership cost of respective vehicles, which is used in logit model to determine their respective purchase probabilities. Effect of inconveniences associated with adoption of EV and fluctuation in ethanol supply have been incorporated. Model predicts the penetration of E-85 and EV up-to 31.16 % of total private vehicle stock by 2050. Carbon tax policy is effective in increasing the adoption rate. Stronger policies and development of better infrastructure matching with the phase of high demand for vehicles could prove beneficial.