Abstract for: Combining Foresight and Systems Dynamics in the project - Scenarios for a Sustainable Europe 2050

This study showcases the use of Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD) analysis in the foresight project Scenarios for a Sustainable Europe in 2050 (SSE2050) and how CLDs can be used in the context of the Scenario Method in foresight. The project SSE2050 is part EIONET NRC FLIS (Forward Looking Information and Services). This study is a metanalysis of the solution scenarios developed in the project SSE2050. The results show that the solution scenarios vary slightly in how the framing of system boundaries and the point of departure in the narratives are treated. The CLDs analysis show that the key factors evolution in the scenarios are either generic or highly specific, influencing the interpretation of the scenarios. This illustrates the necessity to be explicit in the description of the solution scenarios since the factors derived for the CLDs need explicit language. CLDs constitute one additional lever to critically reflect and visualize complex interdependencies that are conveyed in the written text of scenario narratives. This will aid in enriching and identifying key factors of influence in the scenarios and validating the results for further communication. The study shows that scenario CLDs can be part of enriching scenarios further and complement the foresight method.