Abstract for: Model for scenario analysis in the inclusion of non-conventional renewable resources in the Colombian energy matrix.
Colombia is a country highly dependent on water sources for electricity generation, making it vulnerable to climatic variations and uncertainties. For this reason, Colombia has promoted in recent years the inclusion of Non-Conventional Renewable Energy Sources (NCRES) in its energy matrix by defining indicative goals for 2030 and regulatory policies. However, the inclusion of NCRES represents a challenge at a technological level and in the system's conception and representation. Being mechanisms and technologies with no precedent, operational, and market conditions can change, and we do not know how the system will behave in the future. Government entities and researchers had carried out some scenario exercises. However, more quantitative approaches are needed to overcome analytical limitations, the actors' own biases, and validate the scenarios. This research proposes a system dynamics model which simulates the installed capacity expansion in Colombia and could be used for scenario analysis to include non-conventional renewable resources in the Colombian energy matrix. The model includes separated installed capacities by region, emphasizing the difference of potential and related costs; it also includes a sub-model for the reservoir dynamics, one for the energy market, and adjust parameters and functions for the Colombian context.