Abstract for: Adding a change resistance layer to integrated system models using root cause analysis and problem decomposition
Inspired by the iconic World2 and World3 system dynamics models, why has a long series of increasingly sophisticated integrated system models (ISMs), such as Threshold21, DICE, and iSDG, largely failed to lead to successful solution of the environmental sustainability problem? The paper proposes the main reason is these models suffer from a boundary problem, by excluding the critical component of political system change resistance. To begin the conversation for filling this gap, the paper presents a submodel to demonstrate how a change resistance layer can be added to an ISM, using World3 as an example. Scenario policy changes now go through the layer, which provides the necessary resistance. The use of root cause analysis and problem decomposition to create an effective layer is described.