Abstract for: A Systems Thinking Archetype to Understand, Analyze and Anticipate the Evolution of International Crises

Crises are a relevant and constant element of the modern political, economic and social landscape. The objective of the paper is to propose a paradigm for the study of international crises and illustrate with a real-world case study its potential. The methodology that will be used is systems thinking with the aim of attempting to understand how a crisis emerges, how it might evolve over time, and how the relevant factors that give rise to the phenomenon can be communicated in a clear, simple, yet layered way. The proposed archetype is applied in the case of Venezuela.The Venezuelan conceptual CLD seems to be a plausible, general framework that could provide insights into the state of Venezuela. Despite missing information, the mapping of the available system elements, their causal relations, and the feedback loops that are developed could be of assistance to policy makers with the aim of designing effective countermeasures.