Abstract for: Dynamics of Crop Yield in the Blue and White Nile Basins
This paper examines the estimated effect of consecutive hot/dry periods (i.e., drought) on food crop yields, specifically Wheat. in the Upper Nile Basins countries of Ethiopia and Uganda. These countries rely on the Blue and White Nile for irrigation for various food crops; however, the region’s weather is heavily affected by the El Nino Southern Oscillation which brings long periods of hot/dry weather. System dynamics provides a method to model, simulate, and analyze the impact of El Nino and La Nina on the Blue and White Nile Basin to determine the effect on the crop yield for wheat. The model is validated against modal references based on observable trends drawn on regional historical data. Validation provides a goodness of fit estimate necessary in using the model to project time-sensitive temporal scenarios going forward into the current century. Additionally, there is potential to expand the model to other food crops in the region, such as barley, maize, millet, and sorghum.