Abstract for: Modelling the Growth of Solar Electricity Capacity in Singapore – A System Dynamics Approach

In order to address Singapore’s energy and climate change challenges, and to realize its pledge to reduce Emissions Intensity (EI, or GHG emissions per unit of GDP) by 36 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030 and stabilize emissions with the aim of peaking around 2030, the government is aiming at accelerating research for deployment of energy efficient and low carbon technologies. For this, Solar photovoltaics (PV) is the main focus for renewable energy additions to Singapore’s domestic energy supply and the current solar photovoltaic deployment goal is 350MWp by the end of 2020, and 2GWp by 2030. This ambitious target also needs joint efforts by the government, businesses, households, and individuals in improving energy and carbon efficiency across all sectors. The primary aim of this study is to model the expected growth of solar electricity capacity (PV sector) in Singapore to understand complex, interdependent factors such as area utilization, subsidies, PV panel efficiency etc. through the systems thinking and system dynamics approach. The proposed model and simulation results are discussed along with policy suggestions. Keywords: Singapore Solar Electricity, Renewable Energy, Climate Change, System Dynamics Modelling, Systems Thinking, Carbon Emissions