Abstract for: Was It Safe for Work Resumption during the COVID-19 epidemic in Shanghai, China: An SD Modeling Study
This study adopted an SD modeling approach to explore Shanghai's preventive and control measures against the spread of COVID-19 epidemic, especially the transmission risk caused by work resumption after the 2020 Chinese New Year holiday. Officially published data from several sources are used to parameterize and validate the model we constructed. The impact of different IPC policies on the spread of the epidemic during work resumption were assessed in our study. The simulations showed that a non-quarantined and non-staged approach to work resumption (Policy 1) would bring a small secondary outbreak of Covid-19. The quarantined but non-staged approach (Policy 2) and the non-quarantined but staged approach (Policy 3) would not bring a secondary outbreak of COVID-19. However, they both would generate more newly confirmed cases than the staged and quarantined approach (Policy 4). Policy 4 led to the fewest confirmed cases caused by work resumption in Shanghai, and the spread of COVID-19 was controlled at the earliest date. In conclusion, conservative IPC policies can prevent a second outbreak of COVID-19 during work resumption. The dynamic systems model designed in this study can serve as a tool to test various IPC work resumption policies, facilitating decision-making in responses to combating the COVID-19 pandemic. A paper based on this study has been accepted by Risk Management and Healthcare Policy.