Abstract for: The Impact of Supply Chain Performance on Seasonal Influenza: An Exploratory Analysis

An ability to optimize policy to mitigate infectious disease helps ensure significant health and economic benefits. This novel approach integrates SEIR model with a vaccine supply chain model to explore the impact of vaccination supplies on the progression of seasonal influenza infectious disease. Policy makers are facing challenges in determining an optimal immunization strategy. Vaccine supply chain capacity planning plays a crucial role to help control the spread of seasonal influenza. All public health organizations encourage vaccination throughout the influenza season. The model includes a homogeneous population and derived model parameter values from the published literature. The key parameter values are sampled to analyse the impact of vaccine policy on seasonal influenza. Seasonal influenza vaccination program aims to achieve a coverage above the Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT) with efficient vaccine dispense process to protect maximum susceptible population. Sensitivity analysis includes Attack Rate, Vaccine Production, Vaccine Yield and Vaccine Cost. The key parameters are sensitive to the changes of Ro Actual and Capacity Multiplier. Seasonal influenza vaccination programs within immunization time frames is a cost-effective strategy in the context of public health. Keywords: Seasonal Influenza, Vaccination, HIT, SEIR Model, Vaccine Supply Chain.