Abstract for: Model Structure and Scenario Analysis Archetypes Translation – An Approach to Mixing Methods
System dynamics modeling and scenario analysis are both methods used for understanding uncertainty, system complexity, and system change. They are both useful when dealing with coupled systems that have non-linear feedbacks and for systems that involve important contextual concerns. It is not surprising then that these two techniques for thinking about system change co-evolved over the last several decades and were employed to a great extent to consider environmental and economic issues. Both system dynamics and scenario analysis utilize the heuristic of archetypes for reoccurring structures. In this research, these two methods are analyzed based on how they use archetypes and in particular the mapping between the methods based on archetype comparisons. By using this approach, system dynamics and scenario analysis methods can be utilized to greater effect together. By identifying a shared language and common properties between systems, common system interventions can also be identified. The opportunity for synthesizing techniques and applying this mixed method approach to addressing complex future change in sociotechnical systems is an important contribution to both systems and futures thinking.