Abstract for: Road transport decarbonization – policies to promote electric vehicles

European Union has set an ambitous targets for GHG emission reduction, and one of the sectors responsible for large amount of emissions is transport sector. Goal for transport sector is to reach 14% renewable energy share by 2030, but current situation in Latvia is not very promising – 4.08% renewable energy share in transport in 2014, 2.56% in 2017 and 4.73% in 2018. Modelling is done to determine whether transport target can be reached in Latvia. Although baseline scenario shows that less than 10% renewable energy share can be reached in 2030, without policy implementation, nonetheless target value can be achieved by implementing policies, like subsidies in electric vehicles, information campaign, fossil fuel tax, improvement of infrastructure, and decrease in average age of the vehicle fleet. Subsidies and infrastructure improvement are the policies with highest impact on renewable powered vehicle diffusion in the total vehicle stock. Best result can be reached by combining both of the policies, however, if need to choose only one, the policy measure with most impact is infrastructure improvement. Research shows that system dynamics can successfully be used in modelling the transport sector and decarbonization policies.