Abstract for: Analysing the environmental impact of transportation on the last mile for online and in-store shopping

The number of parcels, which needs to be delivered directly to the end-consumer is increasing. Transportation processes cause greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and thus contribute to global warming. Many complex dependencies and interrelationships between variables related to online and in-store shopping lead to uncertainties about the environmental impact of increasing online sales. The aim of the project is to implement a generic model for urban areas in Western Europe that considers GHG emissions caused by last mile traffic and focusing on both freight and passenger transport. The use of System Dynamics should lead to a deeper understanding of system behaviour, help to identify high-leverage points to intervene in the system and thus to minimise the environmental impact. A comprehensive literature analysis allowed the identification of relevant variables from different research areas. This served as a basis for the implementation of the causal loop diagram, which also shows the causal links and the polarisation between the variables. To model the stock and flow diagrams and to simulate different scenarios an extensive data collection will be necessary. Expert interviews and stakeholder workshops will be conducted to incorporate practical knowledge.