Abstract for: From Generic to Optimally Calibrated System Dynamics Models: An Application in Agricultural Value Chains

Generic system dynamics models propose a theory on the behavior of complex socio-economic systems and enhance decision making for development. When quantitative policy and scenario analysis are required for a specific problem, the application of the generic model to the real-world case is a challenging, iterative, and elongated process. In this paper, we present adaptation, optimal calibration, and validation of a generic model to a real-world case with historical data within the context of agricultural value chains, namely, the olive oil value chain in Turkey. The study shows that the optimal parameter calibration for a real-world case can be achieved while preserving the causal structure of the generic model; yet the behaviors of the generic model and the optimally calibrated model can be quite different, which reveals the importance of optimal parameter calibration in capturing the behavioral pattern reproduction.