Abstract for: The Exogenous Challenge of Coffee Price Dynamics: Searching for Endogenous Hope
The cultivation and commercialization of coffee are key economic activities in Colombia that boost economic growth and social welfare. The Huila region has the largest extension of coffee planted land in the country. The volatility and the descent of price have affected the economic stability of coffee producers and have led to significant reductions in crops and production in Huila and other regions. Although production processes have become more efficient and the quality of coffee has improved significantly in recent years, the income and social welfare of coffee growers and their families are still very vulnerable to the international waves of coffee price. Our goal is finding micro-strategies for coffee growers to improve their own welfare based on their actual decision-making processes. We focus on an endogenous worldview: we want to explore the very possibility of overcoming the exogenous force of international coffee price through possibilities that could be implemented by coffee-growers. We already built a preliminary systemic model of the Huila region coffee growers focusing on endogenous dynamics that arise from decision processes (both Causal Loop Diagram and Stock-and-Flows model). We will test the exogenous force of coffee price under several scenarios that emphasize possible actions of coffee-growers.