Abstract for: Sustainability of Pance River as a Water Resource

The purpose of this article is to evaluate the sustainability of Pance River basin as a water resource, using Systems Dynamics. The proposed model describes the interactions between the demographic, hydrological and legal systems of the river basin. The dynamics presented by the system are strongly influenced by a phenomenon of urban growth around Pance River basin. It is not known to what extent the river is capable of withstanding this impact; Consequently, this study aims to explore different scenarios of urban consumption growth and its influence on the sustainability of Pance River as a water resource. Based on historical data, the river flow rate was represented as a stochastic variable that fits a normal probability distribution and Montecarlo simulations were carried out on the model in the software Vensim DSS. The results obtained indicate that the sustainability of the river can be affected if the total surface water consumption maintains the current dynamics (“business as usual”) over a 9-year horizon (since 2016). From the sensitivity analysis it was shown that through the implementation of a consumption control policy a balance can be generated in the system.