Abstract for: Modeling the Dynamics of Vicious Cycles Involved in Heart-Respiratory Failure (Lupina Award Winner)
In this study, a simulation model of Acute Heart Failure Syndrome is constructed. It consists of many subsystems and their complex interactions which are controlled by feedback mechanisms. Excessive accumulation of water and sodium and vasoconstriction are effective in the progress of acute heart failure. Pulmonary edema and increased systolic pressure cause to decrease oxygen supply and to increase the cardiac load. Consequently, positive feedback mechanisms are activated and cardiac function loss can occur within hours. Quantitative and qualitative data is obtained from the literature. Healthy individual and patient values are determined and the relationships between the model variables are defined based on literature. The model validity is established with numerous tests. In the scenario analysis phase, two different treatment strategies are simulated. The aim is to minimize the hospital discharge time, hence maximize the health of the patient. The critical factors include pulmonary edema excretion time and time of the stabilization of the variables.