Abstract for: The Electric Vehicle diffusion in Sweden: will the country achieve a fleet independent of fossil-fuels by 2030?
Electric vehicles (EV) offer a promising alternative for reducing carbon emissions. However, in Sweden, the market share for EVs reached 8% in 2018, which is relatively low as compared, for instance, to Norway, who accounts for a market share of over 46%. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we aim at testing the effects of the current Swedish policy framework on EV diffusion. Based on this outcome, we then aim at looking up for policy alternatives that would aid redirecting the EV growth towards the desired pathway. In order to address these issues, we use a mixed approach. First, we use a multi-level perspective (MLP) to analyze the socio-technical transition context in Sweden, including niche, regime and landscape developments. Second, we complement the MLP analysis with the use of system dynamics, which will allow testing scenarios under alternative policy conditions. We find that the diffusion of EVs has been slow from 2005 to 2020, which can be related to a lack of niche developments, cognitive barriers and policy uncertainties. The results further suggest that, by following current rates, the country would not be able to achieve a fleet that is independent from fossil-fuel by 2030.