Abstract for: Choices of households in a prosumer-driven era and their impact on the grid electricity demand
Using a quantified simulation-based case study, this research demonstrates how households, their choice of three “energy-technology products”, and associated incentives and regulations could influence the Swiss electric power industry from 2020 to 2050. The case study is based on a large Swiss utility company and employs system dynamics method. The model projects diffusion pathways of three products - photovoltaic and battery storage systems (PVB), private electric vehicles (EV), and heat pumps (HP) – and their impact on household electricity demand from the grid - hereafter, household electricity grid demand. The significant findings are as follows: First, the increasing share of PVB produced and stored electricity will decrease household electricity grid demand by approximately 18% by 2050. Second, a near-flat HP installed base indicates that the HP market is already close to saturation in Switzerland, i.e., of the sales, the majority are replacing existing HPs. Third, the significant impact of PVB, HP, and EV diffusion on electricity grid demand stems from increased affordability of adoption for all households, not promoting adoption among existing potential adopters.