Abstract for: An Exploratory System Dynamics Model of the Refugee Crisis in Northern Africa
The refugee migration in Northern Africa is the humanitarian crisis of our time. Millions of people are living in desperate conditions in refugee camps in Northern Africa and Southern Europe. These people are fleeing violence, famine or poverty. One of the authors conducted two previous studies exploring the use of System Dynamics to examine the refugee crisis. One study used an exploratory System Dynamics model of the refugee crisis to compare various dynamic allocations of aid with the hope of reducing the suffering of those affected in the crisis countries and neighboring countries. The other study specifically looked at alternative futures for the Syrian civil war using System Dynamics and examined the scope of the problems of immigration and repatriation it created. One of the authors of this study, who has first-hand experience of the plight of refugees and knows many others who lived through similar experiences, conducted structural confirmation tests on these models. Based on his suggestions, a new model was built that attempts to more generally address the root cause of the refugee crisis which is the civil wars.