Abstract for: Using System Dynamics Against the COVID-19 and Other Grievances
We developed a system dynamics model of three connected regions (Wuhan, Hubei excl. Wuhan, China excl. Hubei) to understand the infection and spread dynamics of the COVID-19 virus and to investigate the impact of protection measures against the epidemic such as quarantines imposed throughout China. We used the statistics of confirmed cases in some Chinese provinces and in Beijing and Shanghai, as well as daily data on travel activity within China, to determine the actual numerical development of infected persons in Wuhan City and Hubei Province. We used multivariate Monte Carlo simulation to parameterize the model using official statistics. In particular, we used the model to calculate the infections which had already broken out but were not diagnosed for various reasons.