Abstract for: Investigating the dynamics of important wintering sites of waterbirds in the Czech Republic

The climate and environmental changes have a significant impact on the distribution of species Changes in the species distribution are documented across Europe. The weather conditions affect the breeding abundance of waterbirds, however, climate change has probably an even bigger influence on the non-breeding distributions. To understand the behaviour of the wintering waterbirds and to explain the changes in spatial distribution we apply the systemic perspective. Understanding of the dynamic complexity of the waterbirds system is key for the explanation of the current development. The system dynamics should provide the tool to interpret the behaviour of the birds under various conditions and to simulate the scenarios of future development. The simulation will distinguish four model species of waterbirds (Cormorant, Goose, Goosander and “sample bird”) and approximately 700 selected wintering sites in the Czech Republic. The current state of the art of system dynamics part of the project is represented by the first phase of the system dynamics process. The construction of the causal loop diagrams helped to increase understanding within the multidisciplinary project team responsible for the system dynamics part of the project, we have identified the main variables, their data sources and units of measurement.