Abstract for: What’s wrong with epidemic prevention and control system of COVID-19 in China: Weak Section and Intervention Strategy
Objectives: This paper aims to simulate the prevention and control system of COVID-19, and tried to figure out the weakness and strategy of the system. Methods: Group Model Building was performed to return prevention and control system to the truth (SD-V1). We set up Flow Diagram (SD-V2) after data was collected and relationships among variables were clarified. According to the results, Model structure was modified and a more accurate model was established (SD-V3). Results: The simulation results showed that there was a rapid growth of infectious patients in 20 days of the outbreak (Jan 1st to Jan 20th). The number of cumulative diagnosis patients was peaked in 35th date on Feb 4th then dropped rapidly, with a total number around 92000. Compared with other sections, self-protection and isolation section was quite sensitive. Lack of self-protection awareness, and absence of early isolation resulted in the early control failure and the big bang outbreak of COVID-19. Conclusion: To improve the public awareness of health literacy and self-protection is an urgent program, and more rapid response and action are requirements for government governance capabilities.