Abstract for: Using Qualitative System Dynamics in Analyzing the Effect of Tourism Industry on Economic Development and Employment in Iran

The tourism industry is known as a pushing factor in the economy. It means that progress in the tourism industry affects other parts and pushes them forward. Therefore, the tourism industry as a source of income and employment at the national level can be seen as a way for growing the national economy. The estimates show that, in some countries, tourism has a significant contribution to the GDP. One of the positive effects of tourism in the economy is creating jobs. Besides direct effects of tourism, this industry as a pushing factor can have a valuable role in national developing; hence this industry by creating a series of new activities in the society activates some other sectors of the economy. In other words, the tourism industry has indirect and induced effects on the national economy. In this paper by using qualitative system dynamics, which is a way of thinking based on modeling and its aim is studying complex social-economic systems, we try to identify reinforcing loops that cause economic growth as well as balancing loops that cause economic stability by drawing a cause and effect model of tourism and offer strategies for better exploitation of this industry in Iran.