Abstract for: Employment in Automotive Parts with Electric Vehicle Market Penetration in South Africa

There have been numerous debates around employment impacts and socio-economics in South Africa with the market diffusion of electric vehicles (EVs), however, a definite consensus of whether the impacts are positive or negative cannot be established unless all the driving factors affecting employment in the internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) and EV value chains have been modelled. This study used a system dynamics methodology to develop a simulator to determine the impact of EVs and hybrids on employment in the parts and accessories segment of the automotive industry. Results indicate that the introduction of pure EVs could result in a 14% decrease in employment whereas 34% hybrids could result in a 4% decrease relative to the baseline of ICEVs only. In year 2040, employment in new part sales for ICEVs only was calculated to be 141,067 and dropped to 120,915 with EVs only and decreases to 135,807 with 34% hybrid cars. In the same year, employment in used part sales for ICEVs only was calculated to be 2,175 and dropped to 1,864 with EVs only and decreases to 2,094 with 34% hybrid cars.