Abstract for:Wildfire Catastrophe as a Complex System Outcome
The size of wildfires in the Western United States has increased during the last three decades and endangered both society and wildlands while still there is no consensus on the causes of this trend. In the United States, 71499 incidents of wildfire happened just in 2017 which burned over 10 million acres with the estimated cost of $2.9 billion. Different scientists consider varying factors as the main reasons for this trend including climate change, human wildfire ignition and accumulation of dead vegetation over the years. There is ample research regarding the impact of climate change and human activity on wildfire behavior. Researchers usually disregard the effect of dead vegetation on the wildfire activity. In this research, the effect of this phenomenon on the wildfire in examined. System dynamics modeling is used as a modeling tool for this paper. Dead vegetation increase the burned area by providing more fuel for the fire to consume and also increase the vegetation connectivity which is a necessity for the spread of fire.