Abstract for:Mobility-as-a-Service and the Future of New Vehicle Sales

Many people believe that Mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) will play an important role in the future of mobility. Sharing vehicles (using services such as ride-hailing, peer-to-peer car-sharing, and autonomous taxis) will allow people to enjoy the benefits of automobile use without ownership, and create value by increasing the utilization of these expensive and durable assets. Most analysts agree that widespread adoption of MaaS would cause the size of the on-road vehicle fleet to shrink, potentially dramatically, because the same amount of personal mobility can be provided by fewer vehicles. There is less agreement, however, on the effect higher utilization will have on the rate of new vehicle sales; some believe that vehicle sales will fall similarly, while others believe that sales will remain flat, or even increase with the introduction of new technologies. In this paper, we seek to clarify the effect that emerging vehicle technologies will have on the future rate of new vehicle sales in the United States. We show across a range of plausible scenarios that vehicle sales are likely to remain steady or increase in coming decades, with the potential for a temporary surge and dip in sales as the composition of new vehicle sales transitions.