Abstract for:Uptake of alternative fuels in the European Union bus sector
After having been deployed with success in China, electric buses seem to be emerging as the preferred option for reducing oil dependency, noise and tailpipe air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from public transport. This paper presents a system dynamics model of the European Union bus market, including urban buses and coaches. The study focuses on the future uptake of alternative fuels in this sector, particularly on electric bus sales and stocks. The paper explores the potential impacts of minimum public procurement targets in 2025 and 2030 on annual CO2 emissions from diesel buses and on battery cost. Further research is needed for a detailed analysis of purchase incentives at the country level.