Abstract for:Constructing ASD Macroeconomic Model of the Republic of Turkey -- Integrated Analysis of GDP and Flow of Funds (Phase 1)
We are currently developing a Turkish ASD macroeconomic model
that incorporates analytical methods of National Account of GDP by the government and Flow of Funds by the central bank.
The purpose of this paper is to present the first phase of our research; that is, to construct a comprehensive ASD model that reflects the transactions of real and financial economic sectors by incorporating the Flow of Funds Accounts developed by the Turkish Central Bank and
DataTurkey group, respectively.
At this phase, we have estimated various parameter values that determine population dynamics and real GDP growth as well as price level as GDP deflator by using population data such fertility and population cohorts, and macroeconomic aggregate demand data such as consumption, investment, government expenditures, exports and imports as the model data.
Then, behavior reproduction tests are performed by Theil statistics
for three partial optimization simulations; that is, population, labor force and real GDP-price, which concluded that the ASD model should not be faulted. Based on these simulation results, some findings on the Turkish macroeconomy are discussed such as production capacity and causes of inflation.