Abstract for:Emissions from Indian Steel Industry – An Assessment of Demand Drivers

Steel manufacturing is one of the most energy inefficient industries in the world with a significant share of emissions. Especially for India, where the share of emissions from the steel industry accounts for 33 per cent emissions from the total industrial emissions. Even though the industry has been studied widely for mitigation strategies for energy efficiency improvements, the demand side factors associated with the industry have not been addressed so fat. It is also shown under the literature that there is close association between per capita steel demand and per capita GDP especially developing countries like India with increasing GDP. Hence, the study develops a system dynamic model to assess plausible future relations between per capita demand, total production and emissions for the Indian steel industry. The model is validated through structural and historical fit tests, where results indicate that an increase in per capita steel demand leads to increased total CO2 emissions at the given emission factor. Substitution of steel used for the construction industry is unlikely; however, shifting towards a non-metallic body for a vehicle would likely reduce the steel demand. Demand shifts along with energy and emission mitigation strategies for the Indian steel industry requires further exploration.