Abstract for:An Evaluation of the Impact of Aggressive Hypertension, Diabetes and Smoking Cessation Management on CVD outcomes at the Population Level: A Dynamic Simulation Analysis

Background: Evidence from randomized control trials suggest that coupled with smoking cessation interventions, CVD events can be reduced significantly if hypertension and diabetes patients are properly managed, raising practical what-if questions at the population level. This research aims to develop a dynamic simulation model using the systems modelling methodology of system dynamics, allowing for the evaluation of the medium to long-term impact of hypertension and diabetes management, as well as smoking cessation intervention on CVD events, deaths and associated disabilities. Methods: The systems modelling methodology of system dynamics was used to develop a simulation model to evaluate the impact of aggressive hypertension, diabetes and smoking cessation management on CVD outcomes at the population level. Result: The insights from this research suggest that despite that at the individual level, hypertension management is associated with highest risk reduction for CVD (50%) compared to diabetes and smoking (20%) and is also the most prevalent risk factor, at the population level, diabetes management interventions are projected to have higher impact on reducing CVD events compared to hypertension management or smoking cessation interventions. Conclusion: Although health policy in Singapore is increasing emphasis on the prevention and management of chronic conditions, a recent noble policy that