Abstract for:Complex Adaptive Modelling of Climate Change Health Impacts in Coastal Bangladesh

Climate change will have profound impacts on ecosystems and human health in coastal Bangladesh in the coming decades. In the coastal areas, indicators related to climate change and clinical public health (food security, health services, infectious diseases) are below the national and international standards. These interconnected aspects can be grouped into five sub-system categories: ecological services, extreme weather, infectious diseases, food security and clinical public health and disaster risk management. The interconnectedness of these groups and their associated health impacts are yet to be adequately addressed in Bangladesh. This research will develop a computer-based simulation model based on the interactions of five subsystems using Complex Adaptive Systems Theory and indicators selected and defined in consultation with identified operational stakeholders. This project is expected to examine the following heath impacts: (1) specific infectious diseases: malaria, dengue, cholera, acute diarrheal disease; (2) specific food security outcomes: protein energy malnutrition, growth stunting in children, and (3) potable water, sanitation and hygiene. In cooperation with operational partners, the project will (1) design, iterate and refine the accuracy of the model; (2) create a monitoring and evaluation dashboard; and (3) develop a scenario planning toolbox for use in selecting, monitoring and evaluating and adaptation interventions.