Abstract for:Modeling the Trajectories of Resilience and Collapse of Renewable Marine Resource

The present study considers the possible trajectories of resilience and collapse that can occur to the oil sardine population along the Malabar Coast of India utilizing a system dynamics model and loop dominance analysis. The study also aims to find out the tipping points and polarity dominance shifts in the oil sardine system at which the collapse of the oil sardine stock can possibly occur. The simulation runs shows that there are three loop dominance shifts occurring in the sardine system. The first and the second loop dominance shifts with tipping points in 2023 and 2031 respectively results in a collapse and revival of the oil sardine fishery. The third loop dominance shift with tipping point in 2052 pushes the oil sardine system permanently to the trajectory of collapse. The loop dominance analysis confirms that the tipping point for sardine fishery’s permanent collapse is in the year 2052. The resilience degree computed was 4 percent indicating the feeble chances of sardine fishery revival after 2052. The present modeling can aid in improved prediction of oil sardine population dynamics in the long run thereby allowing for more effective stock management through policy implementations.