micro model - versão cenário base tesed38e4309-4459-4082-8d98-6d93b8c85517isee systems, inc.Stella Architect0600
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1dmnlunitlessmomonthincome_sufficiency*income_variability*effect_of_income_transfer_policydmnlSINWAVE(0.05, 120)*0+1dmnl0.25"changing_self-regulation"dmnl("indicated_self-regulation"-"Self-regulation")/"time_to_change_self-regulation"1/month36MonthsMIN(1, MEAN(effect_of_prenatal_policy, effect_of_childcare_policy, "effect_of_gap_on_self-regulation", normal_prenatal_care))dmnlAdults'_capabilities0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.5,0.722,0.956,1,1,1,1dmnl0.25changing_capabilitiesdmnl(indicated_adults'_capabilities-Adults'_capabilities)/time_to_change_adults'_capabilities1/monthMAX(minimum_capabilities, MIN(1, quality_of_early_childhood_development*quality_of_societal_investment_on_human_capital_through_life))dmnleffective_income_sufficiency0,0.5,0.75,0.9,1,1.5,2,5,5.71428571428571,6.42857142857143,7.14285714285714,7.85714285714286,8.57142857142857,9.28571428571429,101,1,0.5,0.4,0.2,0.1,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0dmnleffect_of_capabilities_on_harshness*instability_of_social_ecosystem/effect_of_policy_to_alleviate_environmental_demandsdmnl1dmnl12Months12Months0.125changing_parental_capabilitiesdmnl(indicated_parental_capabilities-Parental_capabilities)/time_to_change_parental_capabilities1/month60MonthsParental_psychological_resources0,0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.75,0.8,0.9,10.026,0.077,0.1,0.2,0.35,0.5,0.6,0.75,1,1,1dmnleffect_of_psychological_resources_on_parental_capabilities*normal_parental_capabilities*effect_of_policy_to_increase_parental_capabilitiesdmnlAdults'_capabilities0,0.1,0.2,0.25,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.7,0.8,0.9,10.1,0.15,0.2,0.25,0.432,0.5,0.648,0.736,0.949,1,1dmnlParental_capabilities0,0.1,0.125,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.7,0.8,0.9,10.216,0.216,0.25,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.835,1,1,1,1dmnl"Self-regulation"dmnl0.25changing_children's_capabilitiesdmnl(indicated_capabilities-Children's_general_capabilities)/time_to_change_children's_capabilities1/month36MonthsMIN(1, MEAN("effect_of_self-regulation_on_children's_capabilities", effect_of_childcare_policy, degree_of_stimulation))dmnl(Children's_general_capabilities+"Self-regulation")/2dmnlIF TIME> 120 THEN "policy:_investment_on_human_capital" ELSE 0.750.75,0.927,1.201,1.288,1.351dmnl0.75changing_harshnessdmnl((indicated_harshness-Harshness_of_environmental_demands)*(1-"harshness/maximum"))/time_to_change_harshness1/month0.5increasing_resourcesdecreasing_resourcesdmnl((maximum_resources-Parental_psychological_resources)*"stress/resources_gap")/time_to_build_resources1/month1dmnlHarshness_of_environmental_demands/maximum_harshnessdmnlAdults'_capabilities0,0.1,0.2,0.25,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.7,0.8,0.9,10.505,0.531,0.692,0.75,0.96,1,1,1,1,1,1dmnlAdults'_capabilities0,0.0909090909090909,0.181818181818182,0.25,0.363636363636364,0.454545454545455,0.545454545454545,0.636363636363636,0.727272727272727,0.818181818181818,0.909090909090909,11,1,1,0.75,0.6,0.5,0.344,0.299,0.274,0.241,0.212,0.195dmnl240Months0.25dmnl((Parental_psychological_resources-minimum_resources)*"stress/resources_gap")/time_to_deplete_resources1/monthHarshness_of_environmental_demands0,0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.7,0.75,0.9,10,0,0.1,0.2,0.274,0.32,0.365,0.419,0.5,0.9,1dmnlMEAN(stress_from_environmental_demands, financial_stress)/Parental_psychological_resourcesdmnlnormal_time_to_deplete_resources/"stress/resources_gap"Months"stress/resources_gap"0,1,1.5,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,101,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1dmnl12Months1dmnl0dmnlIF TIME> 120 THEN "policy:_prenatal_care" ELSE 0.250.25,0.4,0.6,0.85,1dmnlIF TIME>120 THEN "policy:_childcare" ELSE 0.250.25,0.4,0.6,0.85,1dmnl"policy:_income_transfer"1,2,3,4,51,1.1,1.5,1.8,2dmnlIF TIME> 120 THEN "policy:_increase_in_parental_capabilities" ELSE 11,1.005,1.05,1.08,1.1dmnlIF TIME> 120 THEN "policy:_alleviation_of_environmental_demands" ELSE 11,1.05,1.1,1.15,1.2dmnl1dmnlIF TIME>120 THEN (IF TIME>180 THEN 1 ELSE 1) ELSE 1dmnlIF TIME>120 THEN 1.5 ELSE 1dmnlIF TIME>120 THEN 2 ELSE 1dmnlIF TIME>120 THEN 1.5 ELSE 1dmnlIF TIME>120 THEN 2 ELSE 1dmnlincome_variabilityincome_sufficiencyeffect_of_income_transfer_policy"indicated_self-regulation""time_to_change_self-regulation""Self-regulation"normal_prenatal_care"effect_of_gap_on_self-regulation"effect_of_childcare_policyeffect_of_prenatal_policyAdults'_capabilitiesindicated_adults'_capabilitiesAdults'_capabilitiestime_to_change_adults'_capabilitiesquality_of_early_childhood_developmentminimum_capabilitiesquality_of_societal_investment_on_human_capital_through_lifeeffective_income_sufficiencyinstability_of_social_ecosystemeffect_of_capabilities_on_harshnesseffect_of_policy_to_alleviate_environmental_demandstime_to_change_parental_capabilitiesindicated_parental_capabilitiesParental_capabilitiesParental_psychological_resourceseffect_of_psychological_resources_on_parental_capabilitiesnormal_parental_capabilitieseffect_of_policy_to_increase_parental_capabilitiesAdults'_capabilitiesParental_capabilities"Self-regulation"indicated_capabilitiesChildren's_general_capabilitiestime_to_change_children's_capabilities"effect_of_self-regulation_on_children's_capabilities"degree_of_stimulationeffect_of_childcare_policyChildren's_general_capabilities"Self-regulation""policy:_investment_on_human_capital"time_to_change_harshnessindicated_harshnessHarshness_of_environmental_demands"harshness/maximum"time_to_build_resources"stress/resources_gap"maximum_resourcesParental_psychological_resourcesHarshness_of_environmental_demandsmaximum_harshnessAdults'_capabilitiesAdults'_capabilities"stress/resources_gap"Parental_psychological_resourcestime_to_deplete_resourcesminimum_resourcesHarshness_of_environmental_demandsstress_from_environmental_demandsParental_psychological_resourcesfinancial_stressnormal_time_to_deplete_resources"stress/resources_gap""stress/resources_gap""policy:_prenatal_care""policy:_childcare""policy:_income_transfer""policy:_increase_in_parental_capabilities""policy:_alleviation_of_environmental_demands"income_variabilityeffective_income_sufficiency"indicated_self-regulation""changing_self-regulation""time_to_change_self-regulation""changing_self-regulation""Self-regulation""changing_self-regulation"indicated_adults'_capabilitieschanging_capabilitieseffective_income_sufficiencyfinancial_stressinstability_of_social_ecosystemindicated_harshnesstime_to_change_parental_capabilitieschanging_parental_capabilitieseffect_of_psychological_resources_on_parental_capabilitiesindicated_parental_capabilitiesnormal_parental_capabilitiesindicated_parental_capabilitiesindicated_parental_capabilitieschanging_parental_capabilitiesParental_capabilitiesdegree_of_stimulationnormal_parental_capabilitiesnormal_prenatal_care"Self-regulation""effect_of_self-regulation_on_children's_capabilities""effect_of_self-regulation_on_children's_capabilities"indicated_capabilitiesindicated_capabilitieschanging_children's_capabilitiesChildren's_general_capabilitieschanging_children's_capabilitiestime_to_change_children's_capabilitieschanging_children's_capabilitiesChildren's_general_capabilitiesquality_of_early_childhood_development"Self-regulation"quality_of_early_childhood_developmentindicated_adults'_capabilitiestime_to_change_harshnesschanging_harshnessindicated_harshnesschanging_harshnessHarshness_of_environmental_demandschanging_harshnesstime_to_build_resourcesincreasing_resourcesParental_psychological_resourceseffect_of_psychological_resources_on_parental_capabilitiesHarshness_of_environmental_demands"harshness/maximum"maximum_harshness"harshness/maximum""harshness/maximum"changing_harshnessincome_sufficiencyeffective_income_sufficiencyeffect_of_capabilities_on_harshnessindicated_harshnessParental_capabilitieschanging_parental_capabilitiesAdults'_capabilitieschanging_capabilitiestime_to_change_adults'_capabilitieschanging_capabilitiesAdults'_capabilitiesincome_sufficiencyAdults'_capabilitieseffect_of_capabilities_on_harshnessminimum_capabilitiesindicated_adults'_capabilitiesnormal_prenatal_care"indicated_self-regulation"degree_of_stimulationindicated_capabilitiesHarshness_of_environmental_demandsstress_from_environmental_demandsstress_from_environmental_demands"stress/resources_gap""stress/resources_gap"decreasing_resourcesParental_psychological_resourcesdecreasing_resourcestime_to_deplete_resourcesdecreasing_resourcesParental_psychological_resources"stress/resources_gap""stress/resources_gap""effect_of_gap_on_self-regulation""effect_of_gap_on_self-regulation""indicated_self-regulation""stress/resources_gap"increasing_resourcesnormal_time_to_deplete_resourcestime_to_deplete_resources"stress/resources_gap"time_to_deplete_resourcesminimum_resourcesdecreasing_resourcesmaximum_resourcesincreasing_resourcesParental_psychological_resourcesincreasing_resourcesfinancial_stress"stress/resources_gap""policy:_increase_in_parental_capabilities"effect_of_policy_to_increase_parental_capabilitiesindicated_parental_capabilitieseffective_income_sufficiency"policy:_income_transfer"effect_of_income_transfer_policy"policy:_childcare"effect_of_childcare_policyindicated_capabilities"indicated_self-regulation""policy:_prenatal_care"effect_of_prenatal_policy"indicated_self-regulation""policy:_investment_on_human_capital"quality_of_societal_investment_on_human_capital_through_lifeindicated_adults'_capabilities"policy:_alleviation_of_environmental_demands"effect_of_policy_to_alleviate_environmental_demandsindicated_harshness1Adults'_capabilitiesquality_of_early_childhood_developmenteffect_of_policy_to_increase_parental_capabilitieseffect_of_income_transfer_policyeffect_of_childcare_policyeffect_of_prenatal_policyquality_of_societal_investment_on_human_capital_through_lifeeffect_of_policy_to_alleviate_environmental_demandsBem-vindo ao modelo de simulação de desenvolvimento humano no Brasil
O modelo considera que na primeiríssima infância (0 a 3 anos) são formados mecanismos e competências básicas.
Ao longo do tempo, o investimento da sociedade em capital humano vai diminuir ou amplificar essas competências, criando um repertório de competências nos adultos.
Essas competências ou qualificações se traduzem então em uma vida mais ou menos atribulada, com reflexo nas condições de emprego e moradia, por exemplo.
Com o passar do tempo, os indivíduos se tornam pais e mães e suas competências determinam que condições seus filhos terão para se desenvolver.
Na próxima tela uma visão simplificada do modelo é mostrada. Na sequência, você poderá simular algumas políticas.
Por favor, avalie o modelo e suas premissas (ao final há um link para um curto questionário) e explore as possibilidade de simulação.D:/Google Drive/Doutorado/Tese/Figuras/CLD em PT.bmp(Recomendado apenas se você conhece o método)Visão geral do modeloDefinições- Competências na primeiríssima infância: Capacidade de autocontrole e competências cognitivas, de linguagem, sociais e emocionais.
- Competências dos adultos: Nível de educação, habilidades, autocontrole e competências emocionais e sociais.
- Dificuldades do dia a dia: Nível de demandas com potencial para gerar stress e que surgem da qualidade da moradia, da vizinhança, do transporte, dos serviços sociais, empregabilidade e nível de renda.
- Recursos psicológicos dos pais: Nível de energia, atenção e autocontrole.
- Competências parentais: Estímulos ao desenvolvimento das crianças, atenção e carinho.A simulação considera um horizonte de 50 anos e o segmento mais pobre da população brasileira. No cenário-base, o investimento social nos primeiros anos de vida dos mais pobres é deficiente. Você pode simular o efeito de políticas sociais, variando a intensidade de cada uma no botão que vai de 1 a 5. Isto é, cada tipo de investimento social pode ir de um nível baixo (correspondendo a 1) até o nível mais alto possível (nível 5). Nas regras da simulação, as políticas só são ativadas a partir do ano 10. Cada variável de interesse indicada no gráfico tem uma escala que vai de 0 a 1, em que 0 representa o menor nível possível e 1 representa o estado ideal. Por exemplo, a qualidade do desenvolvimento na primeiríssima infância tem um nível de 0,25 no cenário-base e idealmente todos gostaríamos que se aproximasse de 1. Ao simular, você pode tentar aumentar esse nível, mas considere que as políticas têm custo e que seria bastante improvável implementar todas as políticas no nível máximo (nível 5) ao mesmo tempo. 000000Quando terminar, por favor responda à pesquisa (apenas 3 minutos) clicando no botão abaixo:Entendendo o baixo desenvolvimento humano no Brasil