Abstract for:Robustness Estimation of the Seismic-Damaged Electric Power System in the Context of Failure Propagation

During a disaster, it is common that infrastructures encountered problems in maintaining reliable operation because each sub-sector can be counted as a hazard source. Moreover, a single failure of a sub-sector can readily propagate to same and/or different infrastructure systems. For example, electricity supply from distribution substation influencing the operation of the connected water treatment plant. Excess demand for public services from infrastructure and mandatory demand reduction in the abnormal condition also makes challenges to estimating infrastructure system behavior. In this context, it is required to discuss system performance under supply chain disruptions and demand fluctuation. This research aims, therefore, to determine the possible factors driving uncertainty in robustness estimation. In addition, this research develops causal loop diagrams that examined the progress of failure in an infrastructure and robustness estimation model using system dynamics. Case simulation based on the power system in Daegu city in South Korea is also conducted. The results of this study can provide a better understanding of how a failure propagates to the whole system and how the change of supplier and customer-side variables affect the system robustness.