Abstract for:Modelling state failure in Somalia: a sustainability perspective

Somalia has beed a failed state for more than 25 years and urgently calls for change. The growing population suffers from violence, starvation and a government which is unable or unwilling to deliver any positive long term changes due to a total lack of authority, capacity and legitimacy. The main objective of the study is the analysis of causes and consequences of as well as the identification of possible leverage points and feasible solutions for Somali state failure regarding the socio-political, economic and environmental system. The fully quantified System Dynamics Model of the Failed State of Somalia (SDMFSSOM) deals with four sectors: violence and grievance, central power and state legitimacy, agriculture and starvation as well as population. Insights gained from the model structure and results can serve as a very good starting point for the discussion of policies and future developments. To the knowledge of the project-team, the SDMFSSOM is the first of its kind. We conclude that despite being uncommon, a fully quantified, endogenous system dynamics model of a topic with as many soft variables as conflict and state failure can be developed.