Abstract for:Vision Modeling and Assessment Using System Dynamics – Application to a Sustainable Energy System Based upon Power-to-Gas
Scenario analysis is a powerful approach to support decision-making under complexity. Realistic energy policy scenarios have considerable time and data requirements though, as they usually consider temporal pathways of multiple energy carriers and technologies as well as related social, ecological and economic aspects. Instead of the development of process-oriented knowledge, an innovative vision modeling approach is proposed that aims at the generation of goal-oriented knowledge by investigating the dynamic coherence of an energy system vision. Such a vision model is proposed as a preceding step of a more detailed temporal policy scenario approach by answering the questions of whether a vision of a system design is desirable at all or counterintuitive side-effects occur. Vision modeling reduces complexity by focusing on a specific design of a future supply system. This article presents a stepwise methodological framework for systematically developing vision models consisting of requirements, functional and structural system analyses for vision design and quantitative system dynamics modeling for vision assessment. A special focus is devoted to the handling of uncertainties in the modeling process. An application of the framework is presented for a visionary renewable energy system for power and heat energy supply based upon the Power–to-Gas technology.