Abstract for:Modelling Land Use in Megacities under Deep Uncertainty: A Case of Jakarta

The rapid urbanization and population increase in Jakarta, Indonesia have led to increasingly unsustainable growth dynamics in the previous years. An increased influx into the city has created a land shortage which influences the housing market, forcing people to arrange illegal living arrangements. A significant shift in multi-purpose land use planning and population management policies is, therefore, necessary to stabilize the growth of this megacity. In this paper, a System Dynamics model of Jakarta land allocation mechanisms is developed to identify policies for supporting sustainable socio-economic growth. Using the model, the impacts of the increasing population on land development and rising pressure on housing affordability level are highlighted, while accounting the leakage effects on slum development and other land uses.

Being a complex issue with deeply uncertain future, different plausible future scenarios are explored with the model through Exploratory Modelling and Analysis and Adaptive Robust Design. The as-is model is initially run for 40-year time span to observe long-term trends without any policy interventions. The vulnerabilities associated with future scenarios are explored, and robust policy structures are designed. The policy implementations are then studied using Multi-Objective Robust Optimisation to identify set of most robust strategies for sustainable growth of Jakarta.