Abstract for:Migration Models for Policymakers

Migration is not a new phenomenon. Nor is (forced) displacement and refuge. Nor is seeking and granting asylum. No doubt will there be many migrants, displaced individuals, and asylum seekers in the near and long term future. If preventive actions (e.g., sustainable development) are not taken urgently and to the level required, then Europe needs to prepare for large migration inflows from neighbouring regions. To prevent and be prepared for large migration inflows, insight is needed in causes of migration (such as population growth and pressure, food scarcity, climate change impacts, conflicts) as well as in the dynamics of migration. Simulation models can be used to provide insight in plausible future causes of migration and in the dynamics of migration. So far, root cause models and migration models have not been integrated. Hence, in this project we are developing migration models that integrate both root cause models and migration dynamics in order to explore plausible future migration crises. In order to be able to do so, we are using (and developing) some of the latest techniques in modelling and simulation.