Abstract for:Understanding Feedback in the Transition to Electric Vehicles: Insights from the Markets in Norway and the Netherlands

The aim of this research is to derive policy scenarios for the sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and battery electric vehicles in Norway and the Netherlands. A feedback loop oriented process of applying the Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent Model is used to understand the feedback loop complexity that causes sales of these vehicles between 2010 and 2030. Preliminary insights from a loop dominance analysis and early adopters behavior with the case of plug-in hybrid vehicles in the Netherlands are discussed. Insights from the loop dominance analysis suggest that previous technologies can hinder market uptake of later, better technologies. The outcomes of scenarios with various combinations of future policies are discussed and show a variety of future scenarios. We discuss the use of automated calibration and the current implementation of financial incentives in the model. The methods used and the produced scenarios are deemed to be useful for policy analysis.