Abstract for:A Spatio-temporal Industry Dynamic Simulation of Taoyuan Aerotropolis in Taiwan
Our study aims to simulate future development of Taoyuan Aerotropolis in multiple aspects so as to evaluate the master plan of the project with land area of 6845 hectares. We first illustrate the inter-relationship of core systems in Aerotropolis which include industrial systems, population systems and land demand systems. By applying Vensim we demonstrate that the industry system in Taoyuan Aerotropolis would experience a transitional period from growth to maturity while the population system would continue to increase in the first twenty years. Later, the low fertility rate will result in decline of total population which causes the slowdown of economic growth rate. In addition, insufficient supply of residential land would lead to the increase of commuters as the employment reaches its peak in the future. In the last part, we simulate of the occupancy of various firms on industrial zone for the next 40 years using an agent-based land use simulator Netlogo. One of our key conclusions is that high-tech firms would eventually occupy most of the industrial land in the future. On the other hand, the residential land may be insufficient to cope with future hosing demand.