Abstract for:Dynamics of global Dairy Sector: model evaluation and new calibrations using FAOSTAT data.
The main objective was to improve the estimates of a SD model published in the proceedings of 30thISDC (2012) showing the importance of the milk production improvement to global dairy sector. Specific aims included: i) evaluation of model estimates of cow number (CN) and milk production (MP) using official Faostat statistics 1999-2016 and ii) implementation of model changes performing a new model calibration aimed to improve the systemic understanding of global dairy sector. The model consisted of 6 sub-models, modification of submodel B (Cow population), were considered. Compared with observed Faostat data 1999-2016, output of the original model strongly underestimated the global CN and MP. Model estimates increased linearly, whereas real data 1999-2016 described CN S-shape growth. Structural changes were implemented to take into account the dairy sector growth of developing countries. Other changes involved a limit to increases of global herd size, due to competition for resources. A new calibration of the model was then performed considering these two additional factors in the model structure. After changes, the model matched the pattern behavior and observed trends of CN, global MP and cow productivity. Further applications should test policies aimed to encourage cow productivity improvements to seek expected milk demand.