Abstract for:An Accessible Robust Integrative Dynamic approach for an ecosystem-based risk assessment in Small Island Developing States

This research focuses on ecosystem-based risk assessments of current and future climate-related hazards on (1) settlements and built infrastructure, (2) water and food security, (2) natural ecosystems both terrestrial (e.g. forest), coastal (e.g. mangrove) and near-coastal marine (e.g. seagrass, reefs); and (3) modern and traditional agricultural and aqua-cultural systems.  However, the complex and integrated social, economic and environmental dimensions of climate change risk assessment cannot be effectively undertaken using traditional approaches that focus only on one dimension and are unable to examine adaptation strategies for risk reduction in the face of alternative future scenarios, large uncertainties, and a range of stakeholder needs. Approaches are needed that are accessible (including for ‘non-modellers’), robust given the best available data, integrate social, economic and environmental factors, and can account for the dynamic aspects of the system being studied (including feedbacks, nonlinearities and time lags). This is referred to as the Accessible Robust Integrative Dynamic (ARID) approach. For this research project, we will develop a Participatory Decision Support System (PDSS) using a combined GIS, Bayesian Network and System Dynamics (GIS-BN-SD) modelling approaches based on the ARID framework.