Abstract for:A comparative, simulation supported study on the diffusion of battery electric vehicles in Norway and Sweden

Norway and Sweden’s different policies represent a natural experiment: their current battery electric vehicle (BEV) policies differ. Sharing a past of period of 100% fossil fuel use, Sweden adopted a technologically neutral transportation strategy, while Norway policy efforts are concentrated on BEV. The present study develops a system dynamics model to represent and quantitatively analyse the interrelatedness between policy, consumer behaviour, social dynamics, competition forces and cost and performance developments in Norway and Sweden.

The study explores 7 policy options and finds that both countries will achieve their 2050 zero emission goals for road transport if current policies are prolonged.  Under accelerated policies,  BEV fleet penetration rates will reach 100% within two decades.  The international drivers of longer BEV range and lower prices will wash out Sweden’s current trailing of EV uptake. The transition to electrification under base case is slower than in other studies; future research will investigate factors that might contribute to different time constants than those estimated here.