Abstract for:A new insecure-secure diffusion archetype to model complex anthropocentric systems
This paper presents a new insecure-secure diffusion (change-of-state) archetype that is based on the S-shaped growth behavior. The archetype is particularly useful in modeling the dynamic of anthropocentric systems related to development and aid for which flow is allowed to occur back and forth between stocks. In these systems, the main actors are directly and strongly influenced by complex human socio-economic-political interactions that are themselves not humans but are indirectly influenced by human interactions. It is shown how the proposed archetype can depict the evolution of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) over time, global trade, and the dynamics behind migration, urbanization, and land-use change. Three versions of the archetype are presented: a two-chambered and extended linear form, a three-chambered triangular form, and a four-chambered hierarchical form. The different versions can be used in different situations.